Armchair Analyst: Your complete guide to the Week 12 MLS slate

Nobody reads ledes anymore, right?

Into the weekend we go:

Friday Night

Toronto FC vs. Orlando City SC

8 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

In last Sunday's column I caused quite a stir by putting TFC in their own tier because, despite their record, I think they're fine. You, my beloved and gentle and maaaaaybe not entirely rational readers, think otherwise. Some numbers provided by Opta back up my point.

The point stands for most players and teams who are either vastly underperforming or vastly overperforming their expected goals: Eventually they regress/progress back to the mean. Eventually those looks – like Marky Delgado's against Chivas, or Tosaint Ricketts' against Seattle, or Jay Chapman's against New England – start falling. And as the defense gets healthy (expect to see Chris Mavinga and Gregory van der Wiel in central defense this weekend) and they get the disastrous Ager Aketxe out of central midfield, there will stop being the types of defensive breakdowns that buried them in the first half against the Revs.

So my official stance is that TFC are fine, and they will have the bonus of going against an Orlando City team that's without Yoshi Yotun (yellow card accumulation) and Dom Dwyer (lower body injury) Friday night. That's not fine for the Purple Lions.

If TFC lose or even draw this one then come back here and feel free to dunk on me and them. That said:

Make sure you give Rob some credit when you do so.

Update: Orlando nearly held on for a comeback draw after a first half with little attacking intent on either side, but the Canadian duo of Jay Chapman and Ryan Telfer (yes, really) landed TFC a vital 2-1 win.

Saturday Slate

NYCFC vs. Colorado Rapids

1 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

As Ben Baer wrote earlier this week, NYCFC have played – by far – the toughest schedule in the league. Seven of their 11 have been on the road, and many of those have been against the league's best teams (the likes of Atlanta, Sporting and RBNY). They have performed beyond admirably, taking nine points from those seven games.

At home they're an absolute wagon at 4-0-0 with 11 goals scored and just 2 conceded. The House that Lampard Built™ has treated them well.

As for the Rapids...

They have just one of a possible 12 points on the road thus far, and while their back five is, in theory, suited toward walling off the final third on a small pitch, the reality is that teams have pretty easily been able to shoot the gaps between Colorado's wingbacks and wide central defenders. Look for David Villa to drift out left and get on the ball in that channel with runners ahead of him – in particular Ben Sweat underlapping to post up on the edge of the box. 

Portland Timbers vs. LAFC

3 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

LAFC have lost a good deal of their explosiveness in the last few games following the injury to Marco Ureña. The Costa Rican center forward never scores, but his hold-up play and movement drag opposing defenses around and allow guys like Carlos Vela, Diego Rossi and Latif Blessing to hit gaps that otherwise don't really exist.

Even without him, though, LAFC have been damn good. They're in the midst of rewriting what's possible for an expansion team:

Saturday's trip to Portland will be a different kind of test for them, as the Timbers have found themselves over the past month by dragging numbers behind the ball and trying to bottle the game up. They're toggling between a 4-3-2-1 and a 4-2-3-1 but the point of how they play each is the same: Put and keep numbers in Zone 14 to protect the backline, and defend deep so that guys like Diego Valeri and Sebastian Blanco get the ball on the run.

It's obviously working, as the Timbers are on a run of three straight shutout wins for the first time in their MLS existence.

FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

4 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

I will always feel that the Red Bulls won the Tim Parker for Felipe + cash trade because 1) If you have a pair of mid-20s domestic center backs (who are good) to build around, it makes constructing a balanced roster so, so much easier; and 2) TAM grows on trees.

That said, Felipe's been excellent. The diving/after-the-fact fouls/outright dirty play of league's most despised player (he'd win it with like 90% of the vote, folks) often overshadows the fact that he remains a very good soccer player, and his ability to conduct the game has boosted the once moribund 'Caps attack over the past month.

They really have figured some stuff out in central midfield, and while he's not a true No. 10, he hasn't really needed to be. To my eye he's the catalyst behind better overall attacking play in recent weeks:

Yordy Reyna isn't a true No. 10 either, but he looked like it the other night in a disappointing 2-2 home draw against San Jose. If those two guys can in a groove and stay on the field, then Vancouver will have finally found their attacking Plan B and won't be so reliant upon long-balls and crosses. It's an "if" since the sample size is not large right now, but it's been promising. 

The problem with the 'Caps – and yeah, this goes back to the Parker thing – is that their defense has been outright bad. They got beat over the top on San Jose's first goal. They got beat up the gut on San Jose's second goal after Efrain Juarez decided "maybe nah, running's hard." They gave up one against Houston when they simply didn't track Tomas Martinez, and another when they were slow to a deflected ball at the top of the box. 

Can't play like that at home against struggling teams and expect to win. Play like that on the road against an FC Dallas team that's finding something close to their 2016 form? Yeah... not gonna end good for the 'Caps unless they clean it up.

New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew SC

7:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

We've sung Gregg Berhalter's praises up and down for his ability to get tap-ins for his center forwards over the years. He deserves it – a parade of guys have had their best years when playing for him in his system.

But it's not all the system. This really is a precise, deceptive and patient run from Gyasi Zardes:

He gets into Johan Kappelhof's head so early with the threat of the back-post run, then angles near post and forces Kappelhof to commit. At which point he jams on the brakes and lets him fly right by, then plants himself in the perfect spot for the one-touch finish. And let's dap Niko Hansen the hell up for his 60-yard run and assist.

I really love that goal.

The Revs have been successful this year in large part because they're not giving up goals like that. They've done an exceptional job of 1) high pressing other teams into useful turnovers, and 2) only rarely getting turned around and running back at their own goal. If you're going to beat them, it's going to be by packing them into their own end and forcing individual mistakes (which can and does happen, though Matt Turner bails them out all the time).

Anyway, New England's gonna come out and try to press Zack Steffen into a mistake. If Columbus are able to play through that press and get on the run a little bit, there will be many goals in this game.

Philadelphia Union vs. Real Salt Lake

7:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

RSL are starting to do some nice things in attack:

They are also dislocated all over the place through central midfield and central defense, which is/has been problematic. They keep getting drilled during the final 30 minutes of just about every game they play, including against 10-man D.C. United last week (RSL were fortunate to hang onto a 3-2 home win).

What is left to say about Philly? They look like they know what they're doing most weeks, and while they have some weaknesses at the back that are typical of young teams, their attack should be better than it is. It's just that pretty much nobody's finishing.

San Jose Earthquakes vs. D.C. United

10:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

The Quakes went to a 5-4-1 at Vancouver on Wednesday and got themselves a very nice result. It doesn't change the fact that their backline has been leaky and left back has been something close to an open wound all season long. Teams are able to go at whoever's out there and find both time and space to cause problems.

Keep an eye on center forward Danny Hoesen in this one, by the way. He now has goals in three of his last four games.

As for D.C. United... who knows? Winger Paul Arriola is maybe going to play as a No. 8, there are injury concerns in a few spots, Lucho Acosta threw a fit when subbed last week, and the defense is a weekly disaster.

Sunday Slate

Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC

2 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

Young Harrison Hamm wrote a very nice debut article for the nerds over at AmericanSoccerAnalysis. Go read it.

I'm gonna pull out one of the clips he used and highlight it:

Minnesota's problem, from Day 1, is that they allow teams to build into spots between the lines, and allow teams to use that to create running lanes off the ball. Obviously they have other problems as well, but the biggest one is just that they're easy to play against. They allow you to get into a rhythm and pull them apart.

SKC have become a "rhythm" team over the past year in large part because of how they use their fullbacks. Though both Graham Zusi and Jimmy Medranda will overlap if you give them space, both are more likely to stay a little bit deeper, basically on the same latitude as d-mid Ilie, and spray possession-oriented passes. Sporting thus have three deep-lying fulcrums to conduct the game, while other teams usually use only one.

Both those guys will actually pinch into central midfield as well, which leaves SKC vulnerable to wide counters – a big reason why they've struggled defensively at times this year. But they're doing something different and, frankly, better than in years past. And it's working.

Chicago Fire vs. Houston Dynamo

4 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

Which Fire team will show up this week? The one that plays a 3-5-2 with Bastian Schweinsteiger as a sweeper? The 4-3-3, possession-focused bunch we've seen from time to time? A sort of 4-5-1 team that man marks all over the field? Other?

Chicago's got some pieces and have mostly held their season together by treating every game as if it's the knockout round of a tournament and they're the underdogs – i.e., they try to focus on taking away the opponent's biggest strength. But sooner or later they're going to have to start building a foundation of "here's who we are and what we do well" and so far they haven't. My guess is you will start to see frustration start to boil over for some of the veterans in coming weeks.

If Houston get a result here – and they're entirely capable of that – the time for frustration would be now. 

Atlanta United vs. New York Red Bulls

7 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

Here's Bobby's take on how to beat Atlanta United, who are leading the Supporters' Shield race. Read it.

Also read this:

It's hard to overstate just how good RBNY's attack has been. They've mostly been going against bottom-half-of-the-table foes, but the two good teams they've faced – Club Tijuana in the CCL and NYCFC two weeks back – they absolutely murderized.

Expect to see Miguel Almiron float out left a ton. The way to beat the Red Bulls is to hit the space vacated by their overlapping fullbacks and punish them for playing such front-foot soccer.

Monday's Matinee

Montreal Impact vs. LA Galaxy

3 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & Streaming Info

Montreal have taken three of the last 21 points on offer and are on track to post the worst single-season defensive record in MLS history.

Judging by how much firepower each of these teams have, and how much each defense has struggled, this one could – maybe even should – end up being a 4-3 game.

One more thing to ponder...

Happy weekending, everybody.