Decision Day: Ranking who gets the final Western Conference spots

This Saturday, nowhere will the Decision Day chaos be more acutely felt than in the Western Conference.

With three Audi 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs spots up for grabs and six teams desperately vying for them, which teams are most likely to hop (or stay) above the line? And which teams will see their seasons end earlier than they’d hoped? 

Let’s rank the West's playoff hopefuls from most to least likely to make the big dance.

• Decision Day: Saturday at Austin FC (7 pm ET | Apple TV)
• Standings: 8th in Western Conference, 43 points

Not too long ago, the Portland Timbers’ season seemed lost. A seven-game winless run from early September to mid-October just about closed the door on 2026. 

Since then, however, a three-game winning run has put Portland into win-and-you’re-in territory.

Currently eighth in the West with 43 points, the Timbers are guaranteed a postseason place with a win at Austin FC. And Austin, fresh off a 4-1 loss to the LA Galaxy this past weekend, look ready for the offseason. 

Not only does head coach Martí Cifuentes’ team have a favorable matchup, but they also look legitimately improved in recent weeks.

Playing with more clarity, the Timbers are using the ball to create chances and strike fear into opponents in transition. Left winger Kristoffer Velde has been the most valuable outfield player in MLS not named Lionel Messi since the FIFA World Cup break, as per American Soccer Analysis’ goals-added metric, and David Da Costa is back producing at the perfect time.

The Timbers are red-hot, and they're on track for the postseason.

• Decision Day: Saturday at Real Salt Lake (7 pm ET | Apple TV)
• Standings: 7th in Western Conference, 44 points

Like Portland, LA will clinch a playoff spot with a Decision Day victory (they’ll visit fellow postseason hopefuls Real Salt Lake). Unlike Portland, the Galaxy have more points (44) than any other West team angling for a playoff spot.

Still, the Galaxy's meeting with RSL will be hard-fought. Of the half-dozen teams eager to nail down a postseason place, only LA – and, in a sense, RSL – have to take on a truly desperate outfit.

While that presents a challenge, Galaxy fans should be encouraged by the attacking quality the team has displayed in recent weeks. The six-time MLS Cup presented by Audi champions have scored at least two goals in seven straight matches, with Marco Reus, Chucky Lozano and João Klauss all posing a threat.

If it comes to it, LA certainly have the horses to outscore RSL in a sprint to the playoffs.

• Decision Day: Saturday at FC Dallas (7 pm ET | Apple TV)
• Standings: 9th in Western Conference, 44 points

The West's final team in control of their own destiny, Colorado can qualify with a win at FC Dallas. Though they’re currently on 43 points and holding the precipitous ninth-place spot, having full say in your own future is downright crucial.

Still, the Rapids are one of the league's most difficult teams to pin down this year. Capable of hitting the highest of highs (they’re only two games removed from defeating the West-leading Vancouver Whitecaps) and equally capable of missing the mark (see: last weekend's 4-2 defeat to Chicago Fire FC), the Rapids’ range of outcomes is broader than broad.

Even so, with star summer signing Morgan Whittaker finding form with three goals in his last three games, there’s reason to believe Colorado have enough juice to retain their existing playoff spot.

• Decision Day: Saturday vs. LA Galaxy (7 pm ET | Apple TV)
• Standings: 11th in Western Conference, 42 points

While RSL are 11th in the West, head coach Pablo Mastroeni’s team has several crucial things going for them.

First, they're playing a fellow playoff hopeful. That presents a tricky proposition, but matching up with LA gives RSL a chance to leapfrog them in the standings.

Second, star attacker Morgan Guilavogui will return from the yellow-card accumulation suspension that kept him out of last weekend's 2-1 loss to the San Jose Earthquakes. With Guilavogui and breakout striker Sergi Solans firing on all cylinders, and Saba Lobjanidze making his usual selfless runs, the forward line has found something again after Zavier Gozo’s Premier League exit and Diego Luna’s long-term injury. 

Toss in a healthy center-back contingent, bolstered by the addition of Canadian international Luc de Fougerolles, and this team could make a last-gasp push above the line.

• Decision Day: Saturday vs. LAFC (7 pm ET | Apple TV)
• Standings: 10th in Western Conference, 43 points

In one sense, it’s shocking to see Seattle on this list. Should they miss this year’s postseason, it would be the second time in the club’s MLS era (18 seasons!).

In another sense, it’s no surprise to see Seattle among these six desperate outfits and towards the bottom of the list.

Injuries have ravaged the Sounders all year, decimating entire position groups. Head coach Brian Schmetzer had to compile a patchwork quilt to get his outfit through big chunks of the year. That, first and foremost, explains the shortcomings that have dropped Seattle down the table. 

Still, closer to full health than at any point this season, Seattle are struggling. Fresh off a 5-1 loss at Vancouver, their season hangs in the balance even with a slew of first-choice players available.

Up against a talented (if flawed) LAFC team on Saturday, Seattle need a result and some help to make a last-minute jump into the playoff field. Stranger things have happened, but the odds are against them during a five-game winless skid.

• Decision Day: Saturday vs. San Jose Earthquakes (7 pm ET | Apple TV)
• Standings: 12th in Western Conference, 41 points

Truthfully, few expected Minnesota to still be in the running on Decision Day. The Loons won once in 18 games midseason and faced several elimination scenarios around last weekend's trip to LAFC. 

But they're still here, thanks to a 3-1 triumph at Son Heung-Min & Co., marking a third win in four games. And now they face an incredibly tough road to get over the line.

Not only do Minnesota need to beat the San Jose Earthquakes on Decision Day, but they need help from a host of teams above them. Put another way, the dust would have to settle just right for Minnesota to climb three spots from their current 12th-place position into a Wild Card spot.

While Joaquín Pereyra’s return from injury provided a massive boost last weekend (the Argentine playmaker notched a brace against LAFC), too much math works against Minnesota to bet on them pulling off the highly improbable.