Eight teams are left. One of them will hoist the MLS Cup 2024 trophy on Dec. 7.
Eastern Conference Semifinals preview today, while the Western Conference came out yesterday.
Let’s dive in:
- WHEN: Saturday, November 23 | 5:30 pm ET
- WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
- WHERE: Citi Field
The Pigeons were really quite good at home and… I'm not going to say “historically poor,” but really not good at all on the road. So yeah, it’s a little surprising they’re here, and yes, it’s extraordinarily good for them that they’re playing this thing at Citi Field instead of having to travel to Columbus.
The Red Bulls changed their game model this year and actually brought in some high-priced, high-profile talent. And when all their pieces have been in place, they’ve been a threat to beat literally anyone.
It’s weird to have two New York teams in a game of this magnitude and say “It’s a true underdog story!” But here we are.
What we’ve seen from NYCFC so far
They were awesome in their Round One home game against Cincinnati, fairly running the Garys off the field. They were hanging on for dear life in the two road games, and Matt Freese has an argument to be the MVP of Round One:
(Just for clarity’s sake: Kristijan Kahlina rightfully won Goalkeeper of the Year, but Freese was clearly No. 2).
This game’s at home, so the hope on the sky blue side of town will be that Freese doesn’t have to be quite so impressive. And if the last time these two teams met is any indication of how and why, it’ll be because of the Pigeons’ high press. The Red Bulls just couldn’t cope:
We saw a bunch of that in their Game 2 win over Cincy as well. It’s a more structured, zonal press than the sort of ball-oriented press we’ve seen from, say, the Red Bulls in the past. But it works just as well when NYCFC are dialed in.
Of course, the other club in the bag is NYCFC are still capable of knocking the ball around with that super-skilled midfield and overlapping fullbacks. It’s always a dangerous game doing that against RBNY, but they’ve had success with it this season, especially since Maxi Moralez has been back.
What we’ve seen from RBNY so far
They waited the Crew out in that landmark Round One series victory and were, as Danny Higginbotham said on the call, better without the ball than Columbus were with the ball. And given how good Columbus were with the ball all year long, that was quite a compliment.
It was deserved:
This is obviously some very, very careless stuff from the Crew, but it also gives you an idea of what an avalanche RBNY are when attacking off of turnovers these days. The new game model I mentioned has them drawing a lower line of confrontation under first-year head coach Sandro Schwarz, and a big part of that calculus is the presence of Emil Forsberg. When the Swedish playmaker is out there he invariably gets his team running downhill with a touch – it was his superpower for a decade in the Bundesliga, and it’s transferred neatly to MLS as well.
The other part of the game model change was having this team be more comfortable building from the back and playing short, possession passes through the midfield. But on the heels of that 5-1 beating NYCFC inflicted in September, that’s gone out the window. Expect RBNY to hit it long early and often, as they did in Round One.
What will decide the game?
If NYCFC are clean enough on the ball to get their fullbacks up and involved in the attack, I think the Red Bulls are in real trouble. For whatever reason, NYCFC are never able to do that when they’re playing on the road. And for whatever reason, NYCFC are able to do that virtually every time they’re playing at one of their three home fields.
Getting that extra width and penetration from out wide allows center forward Alonso Martínez the freedom to drift off the center backs and find the play rather than having to occupy the center back and make the play himself. As he’s a winger by trade (this is his first year playing as a No. 9), he’s much, much more at home attacking space away from the play rather than mixing it up in the central channel with the big boys.
So expect those wide overloads from the Pigeons. If RBNY can gum up the works in midfield enough to pin the fullbacks, then they’ll be in business.
Who’s more likely to advance?
I’ll take NYCFC by a nose.
- WHEN: Sunday, November 24 | 3:30 pm ET
- WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
- WHERE: Inter&Co Stadium
If you’re reading this, then you already know that Orlando City’s 2024 is a tale of two seasons. The first, pre-Martín Ojeda-at-the-10, was bad. The second, Martín Ojeda-at-the-10, has been very, very good. By the numbers (both boxscore and underlying) they’ve been one of the four or five best teams in the league since he slid into that spot in late June, and have lost just three times in the past four-and-a-half months. Pretty good!
Atlanta United aren’t even supposed to be here. They were poor to start the season, then very bad in the middle of the year after selling three of their best players. And then somehow they won just enough down the stretch to sneak into the postseason, where they… won at CF Montréal in the Wild Card round, and then pulled off one of the biggest playoff upsets in North American sporting history by knocking out Supporters' Shield champions Inter Miami.
What we’ve seen from Orlando so far
When the Lions are at their best, they are relentless and dynamic. Like this:
Folks throw the word “dynamic” around a lot without ever really defining it. I won’t leave you hanging like that. So here you go: A dynamic team is one that transitions quickly and dangerously from one phase of play to another. The easiest way to see dynamism is via either the counterattack (back-foot defense to open-field attack) or high pressing (front-foot defense to final-third attack).
Fewer teams are dynamic in transitioning from possession to final-third attack, in large part because it requires both individual skill on the ball and teamwide off-ball coordination. There are more points of failure when you play like that.
Look at that above sequence again. Look at how easily Orlando transitioned from back-foot defense, to possession, to final-third penetration and attack. It didn’t end up in a goal, but that is beautiful soccer.
Charlotte are an excellent defensive team. They got battered in that first game – it finished 2-0, but could easily have been 3-0 or 4-0 if Kahlina wasn’t on one – then packed it in and made it much, much more difficult on Orlando in Games 2 and 3.
But that’s the point: Orlando have been so good that one of the best defensive teams in the league had no choice but to batten down the hatches and play for a pair of shootout wins. They managed it by a fingernail, and Pedro Gallese had enough juice to bring the Lions through.
What we’ve seen from Atlanta so far
Miracles.
I said above that Freese might be the playoffs MVP so far. If it’s not him, it’s Brad Guzan:
Look, we’re accruing some undeniable proof that millennials are actually the greatest generation. Guzan is doing his part!
Honestly, I don’t know what else to say. Atlanta ended the season on 40 points, which usually doesn’t even get you ninth place. They coughed up a 2-0 road lead at Montréal in that Wild Card game, and while their one home game was great – they absolutely deserved that Game 2 win over Inter Miami – their Game 3 win in Fort Lauderdale was not, as head coach Rob Valentino said, down to some sort of tactical wizardry. Rather, it was about two old warhorses, in Guzan and Dax McCarty, making match-winning plays:
Orlando ask a lot of Robin Jansson in their build-outs, and he will break lines where other center backs fear to tread. Sometimes he’ll even go as far afield as David Martínez does right here.
But the rest of Orlando's backline is structured well enough to cover when he does that, and the midfielders/attackers have religion in applying immediate pressure to their opposite numbers in the event of a turnover. I don’t think the gaps that the Five Stripes found in Miami will exist in Orlando.
So how, then, did Atlanta beat Orlando 2-1 the last time these two teams played, a month ago on Decision Day? Individual brilliance from Saba Lobjanidze, a set piece, and then an hour of hanging on for dear life with a postseason berth in the balance.
What will decide the game?
Guzan’s going to need to be brilliant again, which in theory is easier to do against an attack that features Ojeda, Facu Torres and Ramiro Enrique than one that features Leo Messi, Luis Suárez and Diego Gómez.
That is to say I think Orlando’s gonna have close to 60% of the ball and will face a defense that wants to do what Charlotte did to them in the final two games of that series. It is time for Facu and Ojeda to earn their money.
Who’s more likely to advance?
Orlando City. Atlanta will be dangerous on the break out of their 5-4-1, but I don’t think they can absorb pressure the way Charlotte’s defense did.
