You felt filthy clicking this link. Just admit it. You did.
Well, my friend, I have good news: I felt filthy writing this, too. So we can wallow together for the next few hundred words as we try to predict who will follow in LA Galaxy's footsteps and hoist the next – the 30th!! – MLS Cup presented by Audi.
One note before we dive in: I have called four of the past six Supporters’ Shield winners before the season started. Pretty good! I have called just one of the past six MLS Cup winners before the season started. Not great!
It’s very, very hard to get these things right. Anyway, in we go:
Why they’ll win it
My refrain all year long was LA were not good enough defensively to get it done. Oops.
The 2024 version of the Galaxy became substantially better in that department once Emiro Garcés entered the lineup at center back, a perfect complement to veteran Maya Yoshida. Beyond that, Edwin Cerrillo has now proved his bona fides beyond a shadow of a doubt. He’s never going to be adventurous with the ball, but that’s fine – in fact, it’s a good thing for a team absolutely stocked with other ball-movers, some of them of the world-class variety.
Speaking of: I think it’s fair to expect Riqui Puig’s return around Aug. 1 of next year, which should give him the runway he needs to get something close to full fitness once the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs roll around. Factor in everyone else expected to return, and you will not catch me downplaying LA’s chances this time.
Why they won’t
Right now Gabriel Pec and Dejan Joveljić are only expected to return; there could very easily be a godfather offer waiting for one or both.
Yoshida could get old. Riqui’s return could throw off the overall balance. The Disease of More could infect them.
The bottom line is it’s really, really hard to repeat. Only three teams have ever done it in MLS history (only one wasn’t coached by Bruce Arena), and none since the 2012 Galaxy have pulled it off. That’s a long, long time ago.
Why they’ll win it
They finished second in the Supporters' Shield table this year while juggling two other finals runs, which is not supposed to happen. They’ve got an open DP slot (Darlington Nagbe can be bought down with TAM) and at least two open U22 Initiative slots. They have maybe the league’s best 1-2 punch in Cucho Hernández and Diego Rossi. They can expect summer acquisitions like Dylan Chambost and DeJuan Jones – who I bet will be converted into a center back in Wilfried Nancy’s system; can’t you see him making those Steven Moreira-style line-breaking runs with the ball? – to be more meaningful contributors.
And yeah, they have Nancy. I think he’s the best coach in the league by a fair distance. That matters a lot.
Why they won’t
Nancy intimated that if he’d known the Supporters’ Shield was the path to the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, he’d have had Columbus go harder after that one rather than spreading themselves so thin (again: even spreading themselves thin, they finished second! This team was incredible!). And you just know they'll be all-in on the Concacaf Champions Cup.
Pushing as hard as they did for continental glory saw them run out of gas in 2024. It wouldn’t shock me if the same thing happened in 2025.
Why they’ll win it
They won the US Open Cup this year. They made it to the Leagues Cup final. The year before, they made it to the MLS Cup final and the CCC final, plus played in Campeones Cup. They won MLS Cup the year before that.
Six finals in three years since Steve Cherundolo took over, with two wins! They’re averaging a trophy a season. Say what you want about Olivier Giroud (I’ll say he was mostly pretty bad), but a front line of him flanked by Denis Bouanga and Antoine Griezmann is going to do murder.
Ahh, yes, Antoine Griezmann. I would not be surprised if he’s officially on this roster by the end of January. And I would be absolutely shocked if he’s not on this roster by the end of July.
Talent matters. The Black & Gold are likely to have as much as almost anyone.
Why they won’t
They’ve played in six finals. The only one they won outright was this year’s US Open Cup, which was at home against a frankly pretty bad Sporting Kansas City side. Not a great track record.
And look, I don’t like how eager they are to concede possession in the biggest games against the best teams. They couldn’t get away with it against Club León, they couldn’t get away with it against the Crew, and they even finally stopped getting away with it against Seattle last month.
The game model worries me. It’s a limiting factor.
Why they’ll win it
I trust GM Chris Albright will have gotten it right this time with Kévin Denkey, which takes care of the No. 9 issues. And I trust he – really the club as a whole – will figure out what’s been eating at Lucho Acosta, who looked like the second-best player in the league for the first two-thirds of the 2024 season.
Add in the expected healthy return of Matt Miazga and the flexibility provided by Obinna Nwobodo potentially moving off of a DP slot into a TAM-able deal, and there’s a lot to like.
I’m also going to get way out over my skis and point out Cruzeiro's option to purchase Álvaro Barreal has expired. Does he indeed return for 2025? If he’s at left wingback, Lucho’s the 10, Luca Orellano is up top with Denkey, and they still have an open DP slot beyond that to use… my god that’s a lot of firepower.
Why they won’t
Or they whiffed on Denkey like they did with Aaron Boupendza, Lucho’s sulking, Barreal’s not coming back, Miazga’s not going to be healthy, and so on.
Any one of those things could derail a potential title run. But I can tell you right now that I’ll be erring on the side of “wildly optimistic” about Cincy in 2025.
Why they’ll win it
The vibes have to be better. That was the whole point of hiring Javier Mascherano as the head coach – he’s very much part of the Barça Besties Gang that's more or less running the show down in Fort Lauderdale. If the vibes are good, and Leo Messi, Luis Suárez et al are bought in, then I’d expect everyone else to be bought in as well.
Then there’s the central defense, which was bad in 2024. Well, guess what? They have a ton of cap room (they can clear tons of budget space over two seasons if they trade Julian Gressel, which I’d expect) to ensure it will be actually good in 2025.
The bottom line is Messi has won almost every trophy he’s ever played for at least once, and based on what we saw last month, he badly wants to win MLS Cup. Ownership will spare no expense giving him and his teammates the resources to do so.
Why they won’t
It’s probably worth noting there was a pretty vocal contingent of Argentines who were quite happy that Mascherano's no longer coaching their country's U-20 side. That could be fans being crazy-assed fans, or it could be a big, bright red flag.
And look, we’ve all learned over the years that it’s really, really hard to find championship-caliber MLS center backs. Want a good example of that? Tomás Avilés is the most expensive incoming center back in MLS history, and man, did he ride the struggle bus all year.
The biggest reason, though, is Messi, Suárez and Sergio Busquets could all individually and collectively get old. I mean, there were some grim sequences of play this season:
Still, unless Messi’s leg comes off, I’m going to be sticking with this pick for the next 12 months. It’s up to the rest of the league to prove me wrong. Again.
A darkhorse worth mentioning…
Why they’ll win it
Houston's game model allows them to control matches, often even against the best teams. I’d expect Ezequiel Ponce to have a Gass Theorem season in 2025, and I’m hoping young wingers Nelson Quiñones and Lawrence Ennali both return to full health and full awesomeness (I LOVED what I saw from Ennali before his ACL injury).
I also think they’re going to upgrade that No. 10 spot. Will they slide Coco Carrasquilla inside to replace the departed Héctor Herrera at the 8? Maybe, but wouldn’t it be fun if they rang up Palmeiras and were able to land Eduard Atuesta instead? Atuesta’s made for that role, and his presence would keep Coco at right midfield, which would in turn maintain the overall structure that’s been so good the past two seasons.
I’m not betting on it – darkhorses are “darkhorses” instead of “favorites” for a reason. But they’ve got the pieces in place to be a real problem in 2025, potentially all the way to the last game of the year.
